Sep 26th, 2015, It is not a joke...Greece's prime minister is stepping up efforts to implement the 3rd MoU

• Coast guard announced that more than 100,000 refugees entered Greece through the sea, during August 2015. EU’s is stepping up efforts after its recent Leaders' meeting, to resolve the causes of refugee crisis and avoid continent’s instability.
• the newly re-elected Greece’s prime minister was addressing his ministers by stressing out: a) the need to work hard b) the need to avoid appearances in public media c) they will be continuously evaluated as regards their ministerial performance d) they don’t own their ministries but they serve Greek people e) he will be more involved in planning, implementation and control of ministerial matters etc.
• Euroworking Group has been cooperating with the Greek government in order to specify the first set of measures which need to be ratified/implemented required before the release of another disbursement of 2 bios euros. It appears that these measures will include mainly structural reforms such as opening up of closed professions i.e. engineers, actuaries, notaries etc.

·         Press linkages indicate that troika's technical experts will arrive in Athens early next week. It appears that Greece’s budget 2016 will be the subject of the forthcoming discussion as it will include significant parameters of 3^rd MoU. 

 

·     Athens was ranked at 17^th position among the most popular cities to visit in 2016 according to international Tourism’s search engine named Trivago.  

·      Greece’s unemployment decreased to 24.6% during 2^nd quarter of 2015 (vs. 26.6% during 2^nd quarter 2014). It was also decreased to 25.6% during the first half of 2015 (vs. 27.2% during the first half of 2014).  

·         Unemployment’s decrease is due to employment increase by 2.4% (or by 86.4 K) vs. zero % change during the 1^st half of 2016. The number of unemployed decreased to 1.180 mios during the 2^nd quarter 2015 (vs. 1.280 mios during same quarter 2014). The number of long term unemployed decreased to 863.2 K during the 2^nd quarter 2015 (vs. 952.2K vs during 2^nd quarter 2014) 

·         State revenues have decreased by -6.5% during the period Jan-Aug 2015. This is due to a reduction by -2.9% of revenues and by -38.3% of Public Works Program. However, state revenues were increased by +15.9% (annualised) in August 2015.   

·         The significant deterioration of Greek Banks’ liquidity conditions which led to the implementation of capital controls, has practically frozen retail loans activity during the 3^rd quarter 2015. 

·         Several scenarios related to expected pensions cuts were published in Greek press, such as a) a reduction of pensions by -11% for those pensions above 1,000 euros monthly. The number of pensioners who receive amounts above 1,000 euros reach the level of 910,000, which is 34.3% of total pensioners (60% of total pension system’s cost).   

Risk assessment. Although the photos of refugees’ reaching the coasts of east Greek islands dominate local and European media, the European public opinion is gradually shifting its focus to the causes of the problem, which is Syrian crisis. As the ongoing refugee’s influx could destabilise Europe, the EU Leaders took the first set of decisions which also includes direct negotiation with Turkey.

It becomes evident, that geopolitics will play significant role to local and EU economy in the coming years. This is because Syrian crisis is directly related to EU's energy security issues which are crucial for sustainable European growth. Hence there will be no EU strategy on this matter which doesn’t take into consideration Greece.

Ahead of these historic geopolitical developments, Greece’s political and economic systems face significant challenges. Their prompt positive response within EU context could lead to historic opportunities. Tsipras’ apparent determination during his first cabinet meeting needs to disseminate throughout Greece’s leadership, political and economic systems.

Last but not least, the Greek Private sector needs to lead those developments internally. It has to intensify the implementation of international stragegies and promote the internationalisation of local economy, through the prompt implementation of all structural refomrs which are included in 3rd MoU.

In economic terms, this is practically translated to the implementation of measures, which could attract foreign investments and regional business activities. In a few words, Greece

is facing the historic opportunity to consolidate its emergence as regional business hub and stability factor.