Sep 15th, 2015, Meimarakis appears to come out as winner in yesterday’s TV debate

·         For two and half hours, the two main rivals of Greek elections were discussing lively on various political matters. In an effort to attract the undecided voters, who represent more than 10% of Greece’s electorate, the top two political leaders had numerous moments of tension and accusations.

·         Tsipras had no enthusiasm, his appearance had nothing to do with the previous dynamic young politician who was leading the powerful movement of SYRIZA during the anti-memorandum era. He didn’t appear comfortable, appeared relatively nervous and tired, was moving hands and body more than usual and was drinking water numerous times.

·         Meimarakis was calmer, was serious on critical matters, was attacking continuously Tsipras without arguing, occasionally used humour and sarcasm to deal with his rival. When Tsipras argued that he was negotiating hard, non-stop for 17 hour with creaditors, Meimarakis reacted sarcastically and said that 'Mr Tsipras, you are a prime minister and not hourly employee'.  

·         Tsipras insisted that there is no way that SYRIZA will form a coalition government with New Democracy. Meimarakis attacked Tsipras, by naming him as ‘the Prime Minister of 60 euros’ of daily limit for cash withdrawals and capital controls. However, it was apparent that despite the exchange of arguments and attacks, there was a good chemistry among the two politicians.

·        Refugee crisis continues to hit Eastern Aegean islands. Greece’s Coast Guard launched an investigation, in an effort to determine the causes of capsizing of a boat carrying 99 refugees, which occurred off coast of Farmakonisi last Sunday. So far, 34 bodies have been recovered, including 15 children and infants.  

·         During Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting Greece’s Finance Minister Houliarakis was warned that time is running out as regards the implementation of the structural reforms which are included in the 3rd MoU. Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem and European Central Bank board member Benoit Coeure were clear that there could only be some minor changes to the bailout agreement. In addition, the Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici stated that there are still a lot of steps that Greece has to take up to mid-October.

·         Ahead of elections, Greek bonds’ yield fluctuate in a narrow range i.e. 10 year bonds fluctuate around 8.75% (it was close to 20% before the agreement of July 13^th) and 2 year  bonds fluctuate around 12.25% (it was close to 58% before the agreement of July 13^th). In addition, Athens’ Bourse had minor losses despite its FTSE’s downgrade from advanced markets to emerging, which occurred during weekend.

Risk assessment. In general, it was the first time that in a so called TV debate, we had samples of direct exchange of arguments. Historically, Greece’s pre-election TV debates were occurring in the mode of parallel monologues. Both politician showed respect to each other,  and in general, the debate was a significant example of modern dialogue and a step forward for local politics. 

Greece’s elections continue to appear as neck-and-neck battle. The agreement of July 13^th and the 3^rd MoU between Greece and its creditors, have completely altered the local political landscape. As a result, the majority of local electorate remain either skeptical or indifferent. Obviously, SYRIZA voters’ behavior appear to be the biggest question mark which will determine the final outcome. Until very recently, polls were showing that SYRIZA was managing to attract 50% only, of its January’s voters.

Tsipras' popularity has been dramatically diminished. This is because, Tsipras is battling using a new, more rational political agenda compared to his previous populistic one. He has to convince electorate that he guarantees European course and economic growth. He is not familiar with his new arguments and this becomes obvious when you listen to his pre-election speeches.  

However, pollsters are very reluctant to believe or confirm the unbelievable swing of voters.

On the other hand, Meimarakis has surprisingly unified Greece’s centre-right and challenges Tsipras for the first time on equal terms. Last but not least, in many polls Meimarakis’ positive opinions surpass those of Tsipras. He proposes the formation of a coalition government to tackle the significant economic and structural issues and deal with escalating refugees’ crisis, while Tsipras proposes self-reliant government.

If we think ‘out of the box’, Greece has to deal with economic issues of immense importance, amid a refugee crisis and fluid geopolitical environment. Consequently, it requires strong leadership/government which needs to be based on broad consensus. However, this out-of-the-box approach is against the lack of emotional intelligence which determined previous elections’ results.

Tsipras will remain the main political figure of local political system until Sunday. Regardless elections' result, Tsipras will either adjust fast and cooperate with other pro Europe political parties or will be proved a political bubble.