·
For two and half hours, the two main rivals of
Greek elections were discussing lively on various political matters. In an effort to
attract the undecided voters, who represent more than 10% of Greece’s
electorate, the top two political leaders had numerous moments of tension and
accusations.
·
Tsipras had no enthusiasm, his appearance had
nothing to do with the previous dynamic young politician who was leading the powerful movement of SYRIZA during the anti-memorandum era. He didn’t appear comfortable, appeared
relatively nervous and tired, was moving hands and body more than usual
and was drinking water numerous times.
·
Meimarakis was calmer, was serious on critical matters, was attacking continuously
Tsipras without arguing, occasionally used humour and sarcasm to deal with his rival. When Tsipras argued that he was negotiating
hard, non-stop for 17 hour with creaditors, Meimarakis reacted sarcastically and said that 'Mr Tsipras, you are a prime
minister and not hourly employee'.
·
Tsipras insisted that there is no way that
SYRIZA will form a coalition government with New Democracy. Meimarakis attacked
Tsipras, by naming him as ‘the Prime Minister of 60 euros’ of daily limit for
cash withdrawals and capital controls. However, it was apparent that despite
the exchange of arguments and attacks, there was a good chemistry among the two
politicians.
· Refugee crisis continues to hit Eastern Aegean islands. Greece’s Coast Guard launched an investigation, in an effort to determine the causes of capsizing
of a boat carrying 99 refugees, which occurred off coast of Farmakonisi last
Sunday. So far, 34 bodies have
been recovered, including 15 children and infants.
·
During Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting Greece’s Finance Minister
Houliarakis was warned that time is running out as regards the implementation
of the structural reforms which are included in the 3rd MoU. Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem and European Central
Bank board member Benoit Coeure were clear that there could only be some minor
changes to the bailout agreement. In addition, the Economic and Monetary
Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici stated that there are still a lot of steps
that Greece has to take up to mid-October.
·
Ahead of elections, Greek bonds’ yield fluctuate in a
narrow range i.e. 10 year bonds fluctuate around 8.75% (it was close to 20%
before the agreement of July 13th) and 2 year bonds fluctuate around 12.25% (it was close to
58% before the agreement of July 13th). In addition, Athens’ Bourse
had minor losses despite its FTSE’s downgrade from advanced markets to emerging, which occurred during weekend.
Risk
assessment. In general, it was the first time that in a so called TV debate, we had samples of direct exchange of arguments. Historically, Greece’s pre-election TV debates were occurring in the mode of parallel monologues. Both politician showed respect to each other, and in general, the debate was a significant example of modern dialogue and a step forward for local politics.
Greece’s elections continue to appear as neck-and-neck
battle. The agreement of July 13th and the 3rd
MoU between Greece and its creditors, have completely altered the local political landscape. As a result, the majority of local electorate remain either skeptical
or indifferent. Obviously, SYRIZA voters’ behavior appear to be the biggest
question mark which will determine the final outcome. Until very recently, polls
were showing that SYRIZA was managing to attract 50% only, of its January’s voters.
Tsipras' popularity has been dramatically diminished.
This is because, Tsipras is
battling using a new, more rational political agenda compared to his previous populistic one. He has to convince
electorate that he guarantees European course and economic growth. He is not
familiar with his new arguments and this becomes obvious when you listen to his pre-election speeches.
However, pollsters are very reluctant to believe or
confirm the unbelievable swing of voters.
On the other hand, Meimarakis has surprisingly
unified Greece’s centre-right and challenges Tsipras for the first time on
equal terms. Last but not least, in many polls Meimarakis’ positive opinions
surpass those of Tsipras. He proposes the formation of a coalition government
to tackle the significant economic and structural issues and deal with
escalating refugees’ crisis, while Tsipras proposes self-reliant government.
If we think ‘out of the box’, Greece has to deal with economic issues of
immense importance, amid a refugee crisis and fluid
geopolitical environment. Consequently, it requires strong leadership/government which
needs to be based on broad consensus. However, this out-of-the-box approach is against the lack of emotional
intelligence which determined previous elections’ results.
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