Sep 3rd 2015: First poll published showing that SYRIZA loses the lead; Tsipras’ popularity is in free fall

Athens, September 3rd 

·         Two more polls were published yesterday showing a) elections will be too close to call and b) Tsipras loses popularity vis-à-vis Meimarakis (New Democracy – centre right) who gains popularity. More specifically:

o   ALCO’s poll put SYRIZA ahead by 23%, only 0.4% ahead of New Democracy (22.6%), the Golden Dawn (far right) trailed in third position on 6.1% and a 8-party parliament, with nationalistic party ‘Independent Greeks’ staying out. On the question ‘who do you trust more as prime minister?’ Tsipras leads with 32% vs. 28% of Meimarakis (Tsipras popularity on this matter was over 60% last spring).  

o   GPO’s poll showed SYRIZA 25% vs. New Democracy 25.3% with Golden Dawn (neo Nazi) trailed in third position on 5.5% and 8-party parliament, with nationalistic party ‘Independent Greeks’ staying out. It is the first local poll which shows that SYRIZA loses the lead. In addition, Tsipras’ popularity shows 41.9% positive opinions, but loses the lead to Meimarakis which shows 44.3% positive opinions.

One of the important findings of this poll indicate that only 6% of voters are in favour of previous government SYRIZA – Independent Greeks, which is the main Tsipras pre-election theme.  In contrast, 41% of voters are in favour of a formation of National Unity government (including both SYRIZA & New Democracy). SYRIZA rejects the formation of coalition government between SYRIZA and New Democracy.

·         the Dutch Finance Minister and Head of Euro group Dijsselbloem submitted a document in the Dutch Parliament in which he mentioned that the recapitalization process of Greek Banks should be completed by end 2015, despite snap elections. As a reminder, any delay could trigger the implementation of Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) with the activation of the Single Resolution Mechanism in early 2016, which could lead to deposit haircut if there is a need for significant capital injection.

·         the Director of IMF’s European Department, Thomsen stated that snap elections may cause a delay as regards the autumn’s disbursements to Greece. According to the initial plan, Greece should receive 2 bios euros in September and 1 bios in October.

·         a Cabinet meeting was held to discuss a) the scrap of VAT in private education (23%) which was introduced with SYRIZA’s recent legislation related to the 3^rd MoU and b) the measures to handle refugee crisis. The agreement of all parties involved in the formation of caretaker government (SYRIZA, ND, Potami, PASOK) is a prerequisite for such decisions.

·         the head of the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (TAIPED) stated privatisations will miss revenues target for 2015. This is due to the delay of privatisation of the 14 regional airports, which will be completed by year end but its revenues will be recorded in 2016. He also predicted that 2016 revenue target (3.4 bios euros) is achievable because of privatizations of Elliniko real estate, Astir Resort and Natural Gas Transmission Network Operator (DESFA)

Risk assessment: New Democracy’s successful pre-election campaign emerge Meimarakis as a political leader and main political figure of local political system. Although Tsipras remains main political figure of local political system, he is not alone any more. In addition, his power is in doubt due to a) significant failures in his pre-election strategy, b) the rupture within SYRIZA which has led to the departure of a significant number of executives and activists and c) worsening of economic conditions.

A string of ten polls show a) a neck-and-neck battle b) Tsipras popularity is in free fall c) voters are in favour of an all-party government (except far right and communists).

In addition, polls don’t show that Eurosceptic parties gain from recent SYRIZA’s U-turn. In contrary, the recent results show that voters return to traditional political parties such as New Democracy (centre right), PASOK (centre left) and KKE (communists which gain eurosceptic SYRIZA voters).

Polls also show that voters are in favour of an all-party government. The latter causes significant losses to Tsipras’ and SYRIZA’s popularity which insists on self-reliance strategy.

It is highly likely that SYRIZA will continue to lose ground in terms of popularity. This is a result of significant strategic failures during the period that governed the country and before. As it was stated in previous commentaries, SYRIZA is not a traditional political party from European standards point of view. SYRIZA is a grass roots movement which gained power during anti memorandum demonstrations. Tsipras’ U-turn as regards the negotiation with creditors has eliminated its ‘raison d'être’ .