·
A new polls shows a narrow lead of 0.5% in favour of New
Democracy (centre right) vs. SYRIZA (pro Europe left).
More specifically, the University
of Macedonia’s poll which was presented by TV station SKAI, showed New
Democracy at 30%, which corresponds to an increase by 2.5% points compared to
previous survey. In the same poll, SYRIZA which
was recorded at 29.5%, which represents an increase of 1% points compared to previous survey of the same pollster, which was published last Friday.
·
The Ministry of Finance announced a primary
surplus of approx. 3.8 bios euros during Jan-Aug period, vs. target of 3.264
bios. Net revenues reached the amount of 28.7 bios which is less by 4.07 bios
(-12.4%) vs. target.
·
The recent drop of oil price brought the production
of energy via natural gas to be cheaper than the energy produced by lignite. This is
very important for Greece's energy mix, because lignite represents the biggest
energy source.
·
In an effort to protest against the planned tax
increases and changes in their pension system, a number of farmers are gathering
in various junctions of Northern Greece.
·
Athens Stock Exchange Index increased by 1.51%
and trading volume suprassed the level of 50 mios euros. However, there are no changes as regards the yield of 10 year Greek bonds which still fluctuate around 8.75% (it was closed to 20% just before the agreement of July 13th)
·
Refugees’ influx continues mainly from Easter
Aegean islands. Although Greek authorities announced the opening of two
reception centres in Attica and Thessaloniki, they also raised alarm that
thousands of refugees will be trapped in Balkans due to borders’ closures of
various central European countries.
·
ECB’s Constacio stressed out that Europe’s aging
society is committing ‘demographic suicide; and that the continent needs immigrants to keep its workforce
from shrinking further.
Risk assessment: Greece’s elections are still too close to
call. However, it is the third poll published this week which shows a narrow
lead of New Democracy (centre right).
The percentage of voters who responded that won’t go to vote
surpass the level of 10%. This was close to 4% in last January’s survey. The biggest part (28%) of those who responded that they will abstain from the forthcoming elections, voted for SYRIZA in January’s
elections. It is still unpredictable what % of these voters will finally choose to
abstain from elections and if they vote, which party they will finally choose.
All polls suggest that Greece's bipartisanship system increases and will
comfortably surpass the level of 60%. As a result, this will occur at the expense of
smaller political parties. There are three small parties which will struggle to
surpass the threshold of 3% and enter next Parliament i.e. Independent Greeks
(nationalists, former government ally of SYRIZA), Centrist Union (new pro
Europe, centrist, one man show party with extraordinary characteristics) and Popular Unity LAE (new Eurosceptic party which
was formed after SYRIZA’s rupture).
The percentage of votes which will go to political parties
which won’t enter the next Parliament is crucial a) for elections’ outcome/winner and
more importantly b) for the distribution of MPs among the political parties which
will enter the Parliament.
Greece’s Ministry of Finance announced a higher
primary surplus vs. target, but didn’t provide a detailed table to show the extend of Greek state’s arrears to vendors. This appears to be of immense importance for budget 2015. However, state's arrears surpassed 5 bios during the last 8 month period (it was close to 3 bios in January 2015).
Although 1.7 out 4 bios of less state revenues, come from the
profits of Greek bonds which are held by other European banks, the revenues’ hysteresis
is significant. This is a result of both structural issues (tax evasion/black economy) and a consolidation of the
culture ‘I don’t pay’ which was supported by SYRIZA before it gained power
last January. Needless to say that it is still uncertain if Greece will achieve
the budget 2015 targets, despite the new pensions’ cuts and VAT’s increases
which have been approved and will be occur during the last quarter of 2015.
The ongoing refugees' influx represents a significant factor of instability for EU and especially for Greece which represents EU's south eastern frontier. Although Greek economy needs additional labour force to tackle growth and pension system issues, it is absolutely necessary that EU will implement a strategy as regards the on going Middle East crisis. Last but not least, if the situation in Turkey escalates to a Kurdish independence war, EU may see Syrians to be replaced by Turkish refugees in the following years
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