HASTA LA VICTORIA DE LA TECHNOLOGIA SIEMPRE

Έχουμε μία ακόμα αλλαγή σελίδας στην Κούβα με το θάνατο του Κάστρο. Αυτό όμως που αγνοούμε είναι ότι ο Καστρο έχει πέσει δεκαετίες πριν...

Και δεν έχει πέσει από καποια απόβαση στον κόλπο των Χοίρων αλλά από την τεχνολογία. Οπως και το μπλοκ της Σοβιετικής Ενωσης δεν έπεσε μετά από μία πυρηνική σύρραξη αλλά από την τεχνολογία.

Την τεχνολογία που μας φέρνει πιο κοντά, που εμπεδώνει τη διαφάνεια και την αλληλοεξαρτηση, που εμπεδώνει την ειρήνη. Την τεχνολογία που βελτιώνει τη ζωή μας αλλά και που μέσω των αλλαγών της, τίποτα δεν μπορεί να θεωρηθεί δεδομένο, σίγουρο και αιώνιο

Και είναι η τεχνολογία, αυτή που διατήρησε τον Κάστρο στη ζωή μέχρι τα 90 χρόνια (θαύμα ιατρικής τεχνολογίας για το οποίο η ιατρικη της Κουβας θα πρέπει να νιώθει υπερήφανη), αλλά ειναι κι αυτή που μέσω της διαφάνειας που εμπεδωσε, τον έριξε από την εξουσία κάποια χρόνια πρίν

Το ίδιο θα συμβεί και με τους καθε λογής δήθεν ριζοσπάστες αλλά λαικιστές, που ξεφυτρώνουν ανά τον κόσμο, οι οποίοι πιστέυουν ότι είναι δυνατό να υψωθούν τειχη στον κόσμο...Εμείς στην Ελλάδα το έχουμε βιώσει με οδυνηρό τρόπο

21st Oct, 2015, Run Tsipras!… Run!

·         Greece’s discussions with creditors as regards the disbursement of 2 bios euros continue. It has been announced that today’s Euroworking Group has been cancelled because the Greek government has ratified only 1/3 of the 49 prerequisite measures which have agreed with creditors.

 

·         Greece’s banking sector index rallied by 5.5% on Tuesday due to press linkages indicating that there has been an agreement between government and creditors as regards the legislation related to banks' recapitalisation. Needless to say that volume remains at extremely low levels and fluctuates between 20-50 mios on a daily basis, due to capital controls.  

·         Greece's country risk gradually improves. More specifically, 2 yr. bonds’ yield has dropped to 8.2%; it was close to 58% on 10^th July. In addition, 10 yr. bonds’ yield has dropped below 8.0%, fluctuates at 7.8%; it was close to 20% on 10^th July

·         It appears there has been a progress between Greece and US as regards a joint venture aiming in creating an energy hub in northern Greece.  As it has been described in previous commentaries, the project refers initially to the creation of an LNG terminal in Alexandroupolis, which will transfer natural gas to Bulgaria and other central European countries through IGB pipeline. The energy plan is also included among EU priority energy-related projects.

·         The head of 'independent' secretariat of public revenues’ Savvidou defended her position publicly as regards a legal case, which is under investigation by local economic prosecutor. She also refused to resign from her post and expressed her intention to bring the case to justice system in order to defend her integrity.

·         There has been a significant increase of real estate purchases by non EU citizens during the last four months. These purchases are related to the program, which awards residence permits to non-European Union citizens who buy real estate in Greece. Although there have been only 983 purchases of Greek property since 2013, it appears that there has been an increase of 28.5% (on an annual basis) during the last four months. Chinese buyers come first with 335 purchases/permits, and Russians follow with 315 permits. It seems that the interest from Middle East or Ukraine is gradually catching up.

·         According to Greece’s Finance Ministry tax debt increased by 1.5 bios euros in September due to inability of taxpayers to repay their obligations. This increases the YTD budget risk to the level of 5 bios on revenues side.

·         According to the Office of Economic and Commercial Affairs of Romania, Greek-origin investments have reached the amount of 4 bios euros. Greek exports to Romania increased by 17.74% during the first half of 2015, while Greek imports from Romania increased by 4.27%.

Risk assessment. It appears that revenues hysteresis to Greek citizens, who are not able to tax evade has started to impact significantly state revenues. The increase of citizens’ debt by 1.5 bios in September should ring the bell to Greece’s leftist government which favours the increase of tax revenues compared to reduction of expenses.

Tsipras needs to run fast and implement the 33 pending actions in order to achieve not only the reimbursement of 2 bios euros but also the recapitalisation of Greek Banks. The latter is absolutely necessary to be completed within November in order to prevent a potential bail-in in 2016.

However, the Greek government consumes valuable time to an endless discussion regarding ‘equivalent measures’, which will never be found. Although it is fair to expand the existing tax base and include certain parts of economy (black economy, farmers, islands) which traditionally don’t contribute to state revenues as part of clientelism, the majority of Greek taxpayers (employees, pensioners, entrepreneurship etc) need relaxation of tax burden.

As it has been stated before, the reduction of pension system’s expenditure, in fair terms, appears as the only way to reduce tax burden, which will also allow local economy to grow. Actually, the bottom line of the new, additional taxation on existing pensions is translated to pensions’ cuts, anyway.

16th October, 2015, Optimism grow that Greece’s Banks will have manageable capital needs after stress tests

•  The EU has agreed to open new chapters in Turkey's long-stalled accession talks in return for cooperation on the refugee crisis. EU members are also considering billions in financial aid for Ankara. The EU and Turkey also agreed to "speed up" the talks on easing visa restrictions for Turkish citizens.

• According to Greece's Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) economic contraction will be less than it was initially expected for 2015. More specifically, it issued a revised forecast for the course of the economy this year according to which there will be a reduction of GDP by 1.5 – 2.0% vs 2.3% which was initially forecasted.
  

• Press linkages suggest that during the discussions between the Greek Banks’ leaderships and the Single Supervisory Authority’s officials, the latter implied that capital needs of Greek Banks won’t be unmanageable. These discussions occurred at ECB’s headquarters in Frankfurt and all Greek Banks’ leaderships participated in this meeting. There will be a second round of meetings of each Greek Bank with ECB’s officials, today. For the record, Greece’s government will have to submit the recapitalisation bill in local Commons by October 20^th.

• Greek Banks’ stocks rallied by +14% during yesterday trading session due to expectations that capital needs won’t be unmanageable. This helped to the overall increase of local index by 2.74% and to the increase of trading volume which approached the level of 50 mios. For the record, capital controls prevent local depositors to invest to stocks and trading volume is related either to existing investments in stocks or new funds from abroad.

• The team of experts which was appointed by government, to come up with recommendations as regards the local pension system’s sustainability enhancement, announced its conclusions. Although its report didn’t include figures, the committee recommended streamlining of all pension funds into one, a unique National Pension to apply on all pensioners and personal contributions to add to the National Pension.

• It appears that Ministry of Economy’s Stathakis is involved in a case according to which he didn’t declare 1 mios euros from his personal belongings. This represents a crime according to Greek legislation. In another case it appears that Ministry of Defence’s Kammenos uses an anti-submarine helicopter twice a day, to commute from home to his office for a distance of 40 km.

• There was a serious incident between fascist Goden Dawn’s MP Lagos and the MPS of Greece’s communist party (KKE) at the Greek Parliament. Lagos didn’t only attack verbally the MPs of communist party during his parliamentary speech, but he attempted to leave the podium and approach the place where the MPs of KKE were standing. In addition, he attacked verbally the Speaker of Commons. For the record, Lagos is involved in the assassination of anti-fascist rapper Fyssas and currently is in custody. However, he was re-elected as MP in last September’s elections.     

Risk assessment. In Greek mythology, Iphigenia was the daughter of King Agamemnon and Queen Clytemnestra, and thus princess of Argos.  After offending Artemis, Agamemnon was commanded to kill Iphigenia as a sacrifice to allow his ships to sail to Troy. Greece’s pension system appears to represent Greece’s contemporary Iphigenia, which will be sacrificed, in order to allow local economy to breath from extremely high taxation.

According to the Committee’s recommendations there will be significant impact on all pensions above 1,000 euros and less impact on pensions below this threshold. In addition pensions will be linked to pensioner’s income according to Australian system.   

At the moment, there are approx. 3 mios pensioners (including those who are in waiting list) vs. 3.5 mios contributors (employees, professionals etc). In addition, the average monthly pension is higher (approx. 1,000 euros) compared to average monthly income of contributors (approx. 700 euros). It is evident that contributions are not sufficient to feed pension system.

Last but not least, a significant % of existing pensioners are under 67 years old.  According to figures published by Ministry of Labour, the contribution of Greek state to pension funds reached the level of 200 bios euros during the period 2000-2014 which more than country’s annual GDP (approx. 180 bios). Needless to say that a sustainable pension system represents a major pillar not only for Greek economy but for any economy (including European one).

In any case, local pension system isn’t sustainable and represents one of the main reasons which results to significant tax burden and clientelism.
  

8th Oct 2015, Greek stock prices might be heavily undervalued

·         as it was expected Greece’s government won last night's vote of confidence; 155 MPs voted ‘Yes’ and 144 voted ‘No’ (there was an absent MP, who stated that he would vote .

·         France's Hollande stated during his speech at European Parliament that Europe will agree on debt restructuring with Greece, if the latter meets its obligations. It is important to mention that this statement occurred just before the vote of confidence at Greece's Commons and while having Chancellor Merkel sitting next to him. 

·         Ministry of Economy’s Stathakis stated that GDP contraction could be less than -1.5% due to spectacular performance of tourism and less than expected impact of capital controls to local economy. He added that approx. 4.5 bios euros of EU funds will be released by end of 2015.

·         Ministry of Finance’s Alexiadis stated that a new real estate tax will be introduced especially to those Greek citizen who own real estate abroad. He mentioned that Greece will replicate Italy’s similar tax. He added that effective 2016, all real estate transactions will be processed automatically through the so-called system TAXIS. 

·         Ministry of Pensions’ Katrougalos stated that SYRIZA’s government will try to protect all pensions below 1000 euros. At the moment there about 900,000 pensioners who earn more than 1000 euros on a monthly basis. Press linkages show that pensions above 1,000 euros will be reduced between -11% up to -13% (in weighted average terms)

·         Greece’s 10 yr. bonds' yield dropped below 8% (at 7.774%) for the first time since November 2014. This was fluctuating close to 20% in 10^th of July 2015. On the other hand, yield of German Bund was fluctuating around 0.6% while Italian at 1.69%, Spanish at 1.83% and Portuguese at 2.35%.

·         Greece’s 2 yr. bonds' yield dropped below 9% (at 8.932%) which represents one year low. As a reminder, the 2 yr.  bonds yield reached the level of 58% in 10^th of July 2015.

·         Local Bourse’s index and trading volume increased during the last few days. More specifically, total gains during last week crossed the level of 6% while banks’ index increased by 28.8% during the last four sessions.  In addition, trading volume increased to over 60 mios on Wednesday from just over 40 mios euros on Tuesday

·         There has been an escalation of geopolitical crisis in Syria. More specifically, Russia said it has launched rocket strikes on Islamic State group targets in Syria from warships in Caspian Sea – about 1,500 km (930 miles) away.

Risk assessment. I remain on my previous estimates that the current SYRIZA – Independent Greeks coalition won’t last long. In addition, Greece's GDP contraction will be less than it was initially expected after the implementation of capital controls.

This, among other things, means that Greek stocks' evaluations remain relatively cheap. Since my previous commentary in which I was stating that Greek Banks’ stocks might be cheap, prices increased by almost 30%. The positive thing is that trading volume is gradually catching up as well but still remain low compared to pre-crisis levels.

It appears that the SYRIZA-led government will proceed on implementation of austerity measures. Although the Greek government will have to implement pension cuts and structural reforms, with a marginal majority of 5 MPs, the country’s risk profile has been improved significantly since July because of a) Tsipras’ fresh mandate and b) the vast majority of opposition remains pro-Europe. This is evident mainly on yields of Greek bonds.

Tsipras' determination to complete the evaluation of current program within the agreed timeframe, has nothing to do with the urgency for disbursement of 2 bios euros. This is mainly due to the fact that completion of evaluation will send the positive message to markets, could attract investments. The resulting improvement as regards overall economic environment, will allow him to proceed on Greek Banks’ recapitalisation. And if everything goes well, he could close the deal as regards the Greek debt's restructuring.

You may ask, ‘how can a leftish politician be so sensitive about markets and banks?’ Although Tsipras is very keen to use populistic language to attack markets and banks, it seems that he understands that a failure on recapitalisation front could result to Banks’ bail-in. A potential bail-in won’t only impact bondholders, and depositors but will cause derailment as regards local economy’s recovery and more importantly could cause social unrest.   

In addition, Tsipras has shown evidence in the past that is very cautious as regards developments in banking sector. More specifically, during the recapitalisation of Greek Banks in 2014, which occurred just after his victory in European Parliament, he kept low profile but started pushing for snap just after the completion of recapitalisation (October '14). 

Probabilities of having a positive scenario are high. In addition, what is beyond dispute is that many stocks in Greece are at this point incredibly cheap by almost any measure.

Although trading volume in local Bourse is tiny, it gradually increases. In addition, Banks’ stock prices have been increased by almost 30% since last week of September. Due to capital controls, all purchases of Greek stocks represent foreign funds. If Greece’s government keep its promises and meet its obligations, Athens Stock Exchange could act as the mean for foreign capital inflow to Greek economy.

Few things are as little understood as investing, and rarely are they as misunderstood as when they are most interesting and useful. For all reasons explained above, current prices of Greek stocks represent a typical example of heavily undervalued assets.

7th October 2015, Greece’s risk profile has been improved but crisis it ain't over yet

 

·         IMF issued a warning that despite the fact that Greece’s leftish government signed off the 3^rd MoU, the risks related to Greek question remain. In addition, it remains in its initial estimates which were showing a GDP contraction of -2.3% in 2015, due to a significant contraction of -5.4% which will occur during Oct-Dec 2015.  

·         Greece’s government submitted in local Commons the budget 2016 bill. It includes increases of taxes and pension cuts which are totalling 4.3 bios euros. The total amount concerning tax increases reach the level of 2.5 bios euros but could be higher considering that the farmers’ bill has not been published yet. 

·         Ministry of Finance’s Alexiadis stated that effective 2016, Greek citizens will stop visiting Tax Offices which has been the standard practice up to now, and represented a source of corruption. This means that all customer requests will be processed either through web or through KEPs (Citizens Service Centers) which are currently servicing a significant part of citizens’ requests.  

·         Ministry of Finance Mardas announced that the local government will implement an existing plan and create a Summer Davos in a Greek island. It will be an Aegean island which will be transformed to a global conference centre and where countries from all over the world, will be invited to ‘adopt’ a building.  

·         It appears that there are three potential buyers of National Bank of Greece’s stake at the Turkish Finansbank. More specifically, the Turkish bank Fibabanka (in cooperation with Societe Generale), Garanti Bank and Qatar National Bank. 

·         The local Council of State decided against the previous government of SYRIZA's decision to partially close down the goldmines of ‘Hellas Gold; hence operations of Hellas Gold restarted. As a reminder, the SYSIZA’s government decided to close down a part of goldmine operations just before September’s parliamentary election, which led the company Hellas Gold’s decision to close down all operations. 

 

·         There was another incident of attack to IRS officers. It occurred in a local religious feast in Northern Greece, where IRS officers found a merchant having an undeclared cashier, which was producing fake receipts for customer transactions. This was the fourth incident of attack to Tax Officers within the last four months.  

 

·         Cyprus is planning to launch a 10 year bond in the coming weeks amid improvement of local economic conditions. Nicosia is planning to raise up to 1.5 bios euros by end of 2015. The announcement came just after the positive evaluation of Cypriot program by its creditors which led to the release of 0.5 bios euros disbursement.   

 

 

Risk Assessment. The Greek crisis aint’t over yet. Leftish Tsipras’ government chose to continue its previous alliance with the extreme right political party of ‘Independent Greeks’ amid deteriorating economic conditions and significant political and economic challenges ahead. I remain on my previous views that a) GDP contraction will be less than was initially expected and b) that the current coalition won’t last long.

Greece’s leftish government will need to handle within the following 5 weeks, three major challenges such as 1) evaluation of current program, 2) recapitalisation of Greek Banks and 3) debt restructuring.  This requires broad political consent which doesn't exist, despite Tsipras' recent mandate. Actually Tsipras has already made some kind of steps to bridge the gap (who has created), between SYRIZA and the other centre, centre-left parties PASOK, Potami and Centrist Union.

The Greek leftish government’s first full-year budget is going to be ratified tonight. It is highly likely that tonight’s vote will be evolved without any losses from the current parliamentary majority. However, implementation risks of austerity measures remain. This is due to the following reasons:

·         Budget 2016 includes a significant number of austerity measures, which are in contrast to the populistic rhetoric that brought Tsipras to power.

·         The new set of austerity measures impacts significant vested interests such as farmers and islanders. It is the first time that farmers loose significant privileges, which allowed them to enjoy an almost tax free status. In addition, the new measures impact significantly all pensioners which earn above 1000 euros on a monthly basis. These pensioners come from powerful state sector and other significant social groups such as engineers, lawyers and doctors.

·         At the same time, there is no relaxation of taxes to the regular, loyalist taxpayers. This creates an explosive mixture which could impact a) the implementation of budget 2016 and b) the current coalition SYRIZA – Independent Greeks.

Sep 30th, 2015, Greece needs to run in order to meet its deadlines

·         Tsipras continues his trip in US. He met with representatives of the powerful Greek American community yesterday night. He admitted that US administration was supportive during Greece’s negotiation with its European partners.

·         European Commission’s Vice President Dombrovskis issued a clear warning to Greece’s government that the first review of 3^rd MoU must by completed by November 15, 2015.

·         It appears that Greece’s economic contraction due to capital controls will be less than it was initially expected. Press linkages indicate that in 2016 budget’s bill which will be submitted by local Ministry of Finance in coming days, will include a contraction of -1.5% vs. 2.3% which was initially expected.

·         New measures which indicate relaxation of capital controls announced by local Ministry of Finance. According to the new legislative act, those funds which are generated from liquidation of foreign domiciled mutual funds and are deposited to local banking accounts, are exempted from the daily limit of 60 euros; hence depositors could withdraw 10% of those deposits.  

·         According to European Commission, Greece lost 37 bios of revenues related to VAT during 2009-13. Tax evasion remains at significantly high levels; local ministry of finance fails to collect the 35% of revenues related to VAT.

·         In an effort to attract Foreign Direct Investments, Greece’s Confederation of Enterprises (SEV) started discussion with business counterparts of other major economies. More specifically, the president of SEV Fessas was met with the administration of MEDEF in Paris.

·         Turkey’s Financebank announced that its parent company National Bank of Greece (NBG) is considering various ways to meet additional capital requirements. Press linkages indicate that NBG is planning to sell it 99% stake in Finansebank. The expected outcome of this transaction could surpass the level of 2 bios euros which means that NBG could meet its capital requirements after stress tests without asking for additional capital injection.

Risk assessment. It appears that the next three weeks will be the most difficult period for the new Tsipras’ government. This is because the 3^rd MoU is frontloading which means that about of 50% of bailout’s measures need to be implemented by mid-October, in order to complete recapitalisation of local banks within 2015. Last but not least, the program review needs to be completed by mid- November.  

Ahead of expectations for better than expected GDP and better than expected state revenues due to excessive use of bank cards (which increases tax collection through VAT), it appears that Greece’s government negotiates with its European partners some kind of relaxation of measures, which seems to be feasible.

However, Greece’s government needs to choose relaxation of taxes vs. relaxation of structural reforms on state’s expenditure i.e. pension system. At the moment, Greece has 3 million pensioners compared to 3.5 million employed citizens. It is absolutely necessary that pension system’s restructuring will proceed in order to increase employment, which will enhance pension system’s sustainability and support 

economic growth.

 

Sep 29th, 2015, Tsipras discovers USA

·         Greece’ prime minister continues his trip to US, where he met with the Heads of Brazil and China. He also had a brief face-to-face discussion with US President Obama, who congratulated him for his recent re-election. There are press linkages mentioning that there will be a regular meeting between Obama and Tsipras.  

·         Tsipras ‘discovered’ the need of Foreign Direct Investments during the discussion with the former President of USA, B.Clinton.  

·         Effective 1^st of October, six Greek islands will lose their special VAT status. More specifically, Rhodes, Mykonos, Santorini, Paros, Naxos and Skiathos will see the waiving of 30% VAT discount. There will be two more waves of VAT waiving, the first will occur on 1^st June 2016, and the second on 1^st January 2017 when all Greek islands will have the same VAT status as with the rest of the country. 

·         Tourists’ arrivals via Eleftherios Venizelos airport increased by 25% in Athens during the Jan-Aug period. Road arrivals increased by 10%. 

·         Greece’s government plans to collect 1.1 bios euros from taxation on cars. Since 2009, approx. 772,000 cars have been immobilized due to taxation. 

·         Bulgaria’s current account surplus increased to 675.6 mios euros during the period Jan-Jul 2015, vs. 446 mios during the same period in 2014. Exports increase by 10.8% and imports by 6.2%. 

Risk assessment. Greece gradually returns to normality and reality. It seems that the ongoing debt crisis and negotiation as regards debt restructuring, have forced the local, so called ‘left establishment’ to make significant progress as regards its rapprochement with US.

This represents a historic, unprecedented development for Greece’s contemporary politics, considering the involvement of US foreign policy in two major local events of the last 70 year, such as a) the Greek Civil War (1944-9) and b) the 7 year military junta (1967-74). However, it represents a critical adjustment of local politics to the after Cold War era and reality.

It is highly likely to see the Greece – US strategic alliance to be further strengthened in the coming years. This is due to fluid geopolitical environment of Turkey and Middle East. In addition, Greece will need US support to attract foreign direct investments. Last but not least, Greece needs US technical and political support in its negotiation with creditors.

We may see Tsipras making significant steps towards Greece-US rapprochement.  We may see Tsipras inviting Obama to Athens soon. If that happens Greece will further enhance its regional geopolitical role and could emerge a business hub

Sep 26th, 2015, It is not a joke...Greece's prime minister is stepping up efforts to implement the 3rd MoU

• Coast guard announced that more than 100,000 refugees entered Greece through the sea, during August 2015. EU’s is stepping up efforts after its recent Leaders' meeting, to resolve the causes of refugee crisis and avoid continent’s instability.
• the newly re-elected Greece’s prime minister was addressing his ministers by stressing out: a) the need to work hard b) the need to avoid appearances in public media c) they will be continuously evaluated as regards their ministerial performance d) they don’t own their ministries but they serve Greek people e) he will be more involved in planning, implementation and control of ministerial matters etc.
• Euroworking Group has been cooperating with the Greek government in order to specify the first set of measures which need to be ratified/implemented required before the release of another disbursement of 2 bios euros. It appears that these measures will include mainly structural reforms such as opening up of closed professions i.e. engineers, actuaries, notaries etc.

·         Press linkages indicate that troika's technical experts will arrive in Athens early next week. It appears that Greece’s budget 2016 will be the subject of the forthcoming discussion as it will include significant parameters of 3^rd MoU. 

 

·     Athens was ranked at 17^th position among the most popular cities to visit in 2016 according to international Tourism’s search engine named Trivago.  

·      Greece’s unemployment decreased to 24.6% during 2^nd quarter of 2015 (vs. 26.6% during 2^nd quarter 2014). It was also decreased to 25.6% during the first half of 2015 (vs. 27.2% during the first half of 2014).  

·         Unemployment’s decrease is due to employment increase by 2.4% (or by 86.4 K) vs. zero % change during the 1^st half of 2016. The number of unemployed decreased to 1.180 mios during the 2^nd quarter 2015 (vs. 1.280 mios during same quarter 2014). The number of long term unemployed decreased to 863.2 K during the 2^nd quarter 2015 (vs. 952.2K vs during 2^nd quarter 2014) 

·         State revenues have decreased by -6.5% during the period Jan-Aug 2015. This is due to a reduction by -2.9% of revenues and by -38.3% of Public Works Program. However, state revenues were increased by +15.9% (annualised) in August 2015.   

·         The significant deterioration of Greek Banks’ liquidity conditions which led to the implementation of capital controls, has practically frozen retail loans activity during the 3^rd quarter 2015. 

·         Several scenarios related to expected pensions cuts were published in Greek press, such as a) a reduction of pensions by -11% for those pensions above 1,000 euros monthly. The number of pensioners who receive amounts above 1,000 euros reach the level of 910,000, which is 34.3% of total pensioners (60% of total pension system’s cost).   

Risk assessment. Although the photos of refugees’ reaching the coasts of east Greek islands dominate local and European media, the European public opinion is gradually shifting its focus to the causes of the problem, which is Syrian crisis. As the ongoing refugee’s influx could destabilise Europe, the EU Leaders took the first set of decisions which also includes direct negotiation with Turkey.

It becomes evident, that geopolitics will play significant role to local and EU economy in the coming years. This is because Syrian crisis is directly related to EU's energy security issues which are crucial for sustainable European growth. Hence there will be no EU strategy on this matter which doesn’t take into consideration Greece.

Ahead of these historic geopolitical developments, Greece’s political and economic systems face significant challenges. Their prompt positive response within EU context could lead to historic opportunities. Tsipras’ apparent determination during his first cabinet meeting needs to disseminate throughout Greece’s leadership, political and economic systems.

Last but not least, the Greek Private sector needs to lead those developments internally. It has to intensify the implementation of international stragegies and promote the internationalisation of local economy, through the prompt implementation of all structural refomrs which are included in 3rd MoU.

In economic terms, this is practically translated to the implementation of measures, which could attract foreign investments and regional business activities. In a few words, Greece

is facing the historic opportunity to consolidate its emergence as regional business hub and stability factor.